Speakers: Lavinia Raganelli, CRA and Imperial College and Keith Ardron, Consultant & Senior Research Fellow at Imperial College
Topic: An alternative approach to including uncertainties in Seismic PSA
Overview. State-of-the-art seismic PSA must allow for uncertainties in equipment fragilities as well as uncertainties in the magnitude of a seismic event of a given return frequency. However, including these different types of uncertainty in conventional PSA models such as RiskSpectrum requires complex and lengthy calculations. To facilitate such analyses, an approximate method has been developed at Imperial College which allows the effect on seismic core damage frequency of uncertainties in both seismic magnitude and component fragilities to be straightforwardly calculated. The new approach is illustrated by application to a simplified PWR test case.
Lavinia Raganelli is in her last year of an Engineering Doctorate at Imperial College, studying Probabilistic Models for Nuclear Safety. She has an MSc in Nuclear Engineering from La Sapienza in Rome and a PGDip in Enterprise Management from Manchester Business School. So far, Lavinia has worked or studied in five different countries. In her leisure time, Lavinia practises yoga and martial arts and is always hunting for cheap opera tickets.
Lavinia’s Engineering Doctorate is funded by CRA.
Keith Ardron retired from AREVA NP in 2015 as Licensing Manager for AREVA’s UK nuclear programmes. In his role in AREVA he took a leading part in the delivery of the Generic Design Assessment programme for the UK EPR design. He previously worked for EDF SA and British Energy and its predecessor companies, performing reactor safety and licensing studies on operating and new-build reactors. During the 1980s Keith led the Thermal hydraulics Safety Research programme of Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd at their Whiteshell Nuclear Research Establishment. Prior to that he had been part of the EPRI investigation team established to find the root causes of the nuclear accident at Three Mile Island.
Keith currently provides consultancy services in the nuclear safety field to UK government departments and industrial companies. He is a part-time Senior Research Fellow in the Nuclear Engineering Group at Imperial College where he is a research advisor and lecturer in nuclear safety and thermal hydraulics.
Keith is a Chartered Engineer and member of the Institute of Mechanical Engineers.