On 5th and 6th October 2017 CRA hosted its Annual Risk Forum, at the De Vere Cotswold Water Park conference centre in Gloucestershire. The forum brought together industry experts to discuss next generation risk analysis. 19 presenters delivered 14 talks across two days to an audience of 95 attendees representing 31 organisations.
CRA’s CEO Jasbir Sidhu opened the Risk Forum with an address on the challenges facing an increasingly technology dependent Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) and the impact this may have on the approach to risk assessment. During his opening remarks, Jasbir shared the following terms of reference for the Risk Forum. The forum aims to:
– Establish the UK CNI voice for holistic risk analysis taking the human and AI element into consideration;
– Set-up a fund for promoting focused risk analysis research and development;
– Disseminate information on the latest techniques and developments in risk analysis;
– Provide the necessary information to enable better education of the general public on the CNI Risk issues.
Day one started with a talk from Dr Curtis Smith from Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Curtis outlined the challenges in applying traditional Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) techniques on mechanistic physical or time dependent systems and presented how rapid advances in computational power enabled a new combined approach to probability and physical models, called computational risk assessment.
Throughout the day the delegates were treated to talks across a range of topics covering:
– The 8th Annual Risk Forum aligned with the terms of reference; by identifying the challenges currently affecting risk analysis and identifying how technology can meet these.
– How complex multi-stakeholder risk analysis is performed within the aviation industry. The presentation used London Luton Airport as a case study, where an approach has been developed called the “Safety Culture Stack”;
– A review of an incident at the Dungeness B nuclear power plant in 2014 which provided insight into the potential vulnerabilities of the Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor (AGR) nuclear power plant and how these can be captured under PSA;
– A review of the current position and future of Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) in UK and USA was followed by a panel discussion of the current health of HRA with an impressive line up of Barry Kirwan, Ron Boring and Les Ainsworth;
– How the Rail Safety and Standards Board undertook a step change in approach to cyber security in recognition of the existing and developing risks to their estate.
To close day one a drinks reception and meal were held in the evening, allowing members from all organisations to network and discuss the topics of the day.
Day two started with Anders Olsson from Lloyd’s Register addressing the limitations that exist in PSA models; an arbitrary approach to mission-time, the repair time or grace time not being considered. This echoed a number of the themes raised by Curtis Smith the previous day. Anders identified how improvements were being developed within the Risk Spectrum software to address these issues.
This was followed by talks on:
– Real time risk profiling of an AGR reactor, taking into account maintenance activities on the site;
– How the finance industry is starting to embrace human factors analysis following the 2008 stock market crash and other high profile human errors;
– How PSA model complexities are on the threshold of assessor understanding and how tools must develop to address this challenge.CRA would like to thank all those who attended both as delegates of speakers for supporting the event.
Suitably the Safety and Reliability Society’s President, Andrew Buchan, closed the event with a review of the current position of numerical risk assessment, how it had reached this point and where it was going to be taken next. His talk captured many of the points raised across the two days.
Please click here to view the 2017 Risk Forum programme and speaker profiles.
Speaker presentations from the CRA Risk Forum 2017 are available for download: linked.