Speaker: Dr Curtis Smith, Idaho National Laboratory
Topic: Computational Risk Assessment
Overview: Assessment is the process that informs decision makers about outcomes, analysis is the process of decomposing an assessment into smaller parts to effectively understand both the analysis parts and the integrated assessment.
The Idaho National Laboratory, through the Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) project, is demonstrating a next-generation reliability- and risk-assessment method that supports decision-making by combining mechanistic physics-based models with probabilistic quantification approaches.
Integrating the two worlds of physics and probability leads us to predictions based upon an approach called “computational risk assessment” or CRA (not to be confused with Corporate Risk Associates).
Several analysis factors are key to the need for a new approach based upon CRA, including: temporal (timing issues), spatial (location issues), mechanistic (physics issues), and topology (complexity issues). We will describe how these factors are being addressed via a new simulation-based risk assessment approach.
Curtis Smith PhD is a Directorate Fellow in the Risk Assessment and Management Services Department at Idaho National Laboratory. In this capacity, he is the past project manager for the NRC’s SAPHIRE risk analysis software, serves as a lead instructor and manager for the NRC’s Risk Assessment Training program, is a technical lead for the NASA Safety Mission Success project at INL, and is the Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization Pathway (RISMC) lead under the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program.