10th CRA Risk Forum speakers

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Colin Tucker

Topic: MiniSim – A Desktop PWR Simulator running in MS Excel

Overview: Of course it’s important to have high fidelity simulators within the nuclear industry. These are mostly used for Operator training; but what about everybody else? Time on the full scope simulators is precious, and without preparatory training, experience of these simulators can simply be overwhelming. The MiniSim was developed to address this gap. It is portable, customisable, and easy to understand with just a few minutes’ introduction. It is available for anyone on the Station to use, and can be shared with Universities to supplement their courses.

MiniSim was recognised by IAEA as a ‘Good Practice’ during Sizewell B’s 2015  OSART (Operational Safety Review Team) review. This talk will briefly explain the origins and operation of the MiniSim but will concentrate on practical demonstration e.g. steady PWR (MiniSim) operation, transients, fault response etc.



Colin Tucker is  currently the Nuclear Safety Group Head at Sizewell B. The role of the Nuclear Safety Group is primarily an advisory one, ensuring that the station stays within the bounds of the current Sizewell B safety case, and that the safety case is maintained up to date with developments worldwide. Some of the group’s time is spent in monitoring performance of the reactor and they are generally the first-point-of-contact for regulator queries.

Colin studied Physics at London University and started his career in the Reactor Physics group at Hinkley Point ‘A’ before moving to Sizewell B’s Training Centre in 1995. He has worked within the Nuclear Safety Group at Sizewell B since 1998, specialising in development of the Technical Specifications (Operating Rules). This led to an involvement with the conversion of the AGR Operating Rules into the current Technical Specifications format. Colin took over leadership of the Sizewell B Nuclear Safety Group in 2016. He is a Chartered Physicist and is a qualified Guard and Signalman on the Ffestiniog Railway.

Dr.Ir.Tina Nane

Topic: How can big judgements meet the challenges of small data

Overview: How to make better decisions in the absence of data? The answer is by using expert judgements. This presentation aims to introduce the most mathematically rigorous method, which gathers, evaluates and combines expert judgements in a structured and rigorous manner. The method is called the Classical Model for performing structured expert judgement. The Classical Model for Structure expert judgement has been successfully used in numerous applications that span over a variety of areas, including climate change, nuclear safety, chemical and gas industry, civil engineering, aerospace engineering, natural disasters, etc.  


Tina Nane is an Assistant Professor of Applied Probability, at Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics (DIAM) since 2015. Her current research primarily focuses on uncertainty quantification and analysis, both data-driven and by employing expert opinions, both from an applied, as well as from a theoretical perspective. The structured expert judgement applications span over a variety of areas, including source attribution of food and waterborne illnesses in U.S., dike failure assessments in The Netherlands or citation analysis.

She is the responsible lecturer for BSc and MSc courses in decision theory and structured expert judgement and has conducted training workshops for structured expert judgement methods.

Tina has a PhD in Statistics and a cum laude MSc in Risk and Environmental Modelling from Deft University of Technology. Her MSc project focused on the risk assessment of merging and spacing airborne protocols. This work was the result of a close collaboration with NASA Langley Research Centre. The project was not only Tina’s first encounter with a concrete application of uncertainty quantification and the use of structured expert judgement, but also an opportunity to hold and organise uncertainty quantification training workshops for NASA. This triggered an ongoing academic interest and a strong passion for knowledge dissemination.

Ruth Freedman

Topic: Design and development of an outage planning and risk management tool

Overview: Jacobsen Analytics has been working with Sizewell B to develop a qualitative model within RiskWatcher to be used for outage planning and management. The tool is effectively a Tech Spec compliance tool based on Defence in Depth Principles. The requirements of the end user have been carefully considered when designing how the information should best be presented, as well as defining what is ‘acceptable, elevated, unacceptable’ risk. The risk metrics and end state criteria have been developed to communicate risk in an effective way, so that appropriate actions can be taken on site when necessary.


Ruth Freedman is an experienced practitioner in Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) with 9 years’ experience, with a particular focus on risk monitor development and Level 3 PSA. Ruth has supported the development and maintenance of the quantitative and qualitative Sizewell B RiskWatcher model since 2011.

Richard Stephenson

Topic: Keeping information flowing during the mayhem of a crisis

Overview: The importance of using the technology available to keep information flowing during a crisis cannot be overstated. Organisations have no excuse for leaving an information vacuum where people are left to get their information on an incident from rumours and social media.

Critical National Infrastructure organisations are being continually targeted by hackers who want to cause chaos at a national level. The majority of cyber attacks result in a failure or compromise of telecoms: meaning that, if a cyber attack is successful, the energy industry needs a back-up source of communications in order to manage the crisis effectively.

Richard will be talking about how people should be informed as an incident develops, how to put your employees first and be well prepared for crisis communication.


Richard Stephenson is the CEO of YUDU Sentinel. Over the past 10 years, Richard has overseen the growth of the company to become a global leader in cloud-based document distribution and corporate communications.

Richard has been running technology led international businesses for the past 30 years and completed his first private equity backed MBO in 2001. Richard past roles include being an Operating Partner with Duke Street Capital, Chairman of Xafinity Holdings Ltd, President of the Supervisory Board of Navimo S.A. and Chairman of Deloro Stellite Ltd. Richard frequently presents on communications technology and a people-centred approach to crisis management.


Barry Kirwan

Topic: What do senior management really need to know about safety? Towards an Executive level Safety Dashboard.

Overview: A three year study of safety dashboards used at Executive level (CEO and Directors) of seven air traffic organisations led to the development of a safety dashboard for one of the largest air traffic service providers in Europe.

This presentation will cover the background to the study, including the ‘do’s and don’ts’ of developing safety dashboards, and the inter-relation between safety dashboards and other forms of safety intelligence used to keep aviation organisations safe.


Barry started his career as a psychologist and Human Factors specialist, working first as a consultant, and then as a team leader in accident prevention in the nuclear, oil and gas, and maritime sectors, including working at several UK nuclear sites as well as spending short spells on oil rigs and floating production vessels. He then taught Human Factors at Birmingham University for five years, before becoming Head of Human Factors at National Air Traffic Services, the UK’s major air traffic services provider.

In 2000 he moved to EUROCONTROL, where he worked on a range of Human Factors and safety issues. In particular, following two tragic aviation disasters in Europe, he initiated and ran the European Safety Culture Programme for a decade, which now involves more than thirty countries who carry out periodic safety culture surveys.

More recently, he has been involved with the Future Sky Safety programme, spreading the safety culture approach to airlines, airframe manufacturers and airports, as well as developing new safety intelligence approaches including the use of safety dashboards. The most innovative aspect of this programme is known as the Luton Stack, which involves a cluster of organisations at a single airport location working together to improve safety intelligence and safety culture.


Dr Gustavo Rubio Antón CEng FIMechE

Topic:The management of residual risk induced by extreme events

Overview: Following the events at the Fukushima-Daiichi plant in March 2011, a large exercise was started in many countries to reassess the design of nuclear power plants against site-specific extreme natural hazards. The consensus was that a stress test covering more extreme natural events should be considered.

Following those stress tests, additional backup sources of electrical power and supply of water have been made available, the plant’s defences against natural hazards such as floods and earthquakes have been strengthened, and additions have been made to the design of some reactors in order to cope with situations where all those provisions would still not be enough. Perhaps the most visible addition made to many of the plants is the Filtered Containment Venting System (FCVS).

However, these systems still produce a significant release as the price to pay for averting potentially bigger consequences. Furthermore, the decision to make this significant release is a deliberate one and needs to be carefully justified. This presentation will discuss the implications for operators and regulators of managing residual risk through FCVS and the elements that need to be carefully balanced by the utilities when considering the installation of a FCVS to increase the resilience of their plants.


Dr Gustavo Rubio Antón is a safety engineer with 11 years of experience in the nuclear field. He has worked in the enhancement of the safety of nuclear power plants following the events in Japan in 2011 and as a consultant for companies involved in the licensing and construction of large reactors.

He delivered a techno-economic assessment of SMR technology for the UK government that paved the way for subsequent policy decisions and the launching of the current Advance Modular Reactor competition.

Today Dr Rubio Antón works for Bel V, The Technical Support Organisation of the Belgian Federal Authority for Nuclear Control as safety analyst and project manager in the regulatory control of the Belgian fleet of PWR reactors. In Bel V he also leads the regulatory assessment of the MYRRHA reactor, a proposed multi-purpose accelerator driven fast reactor cooled by lead bismuth eutectic.


Simon Whiteley

Topic: Investigating beyond Swiss Cheese and Dominoes: CAST Accident Analysis Overview.

Overview: Traditional approaches to accident investigation & analysis typically treat Accidents as being due to linear chains of events or due to breached barriers.

Unfortunately, the world is a little bit more complicated than that and this is where the Systems Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) approach expands upon this traditional view by treating Accidents as complex, dynamic processes.

In this presentation, learn about the Accident Analysis process based upon STAMP, known as CAST: Causal Analysis based on Systems Theory, in the context of an aircraft accident: British Airways Fan Cowl Door Loss (G-EUOE).

This talk will briefly address: Human factors, equipment design, operations and emergency response, along with the broader Systems Thinking aspects that enable the identification of more causes of accidents and opportunities to make Systems safer.


Simon is a System Safety Engineering Consultant and the Director of Whiteley Aerospace Safety Engineering & Management Limited.
Simon has worked across all parts of the Engineering, Product & Project Lifecycle, across a variety of industries, with a number of high profile organisations, predominantly in the Design & Development phase of the Civil & Defence Aerospace domain (large multi-engine, fast jet & rotary aircraft), Air Traffic Control, Weapon Systems, Defence Maritime, Defence Nuclear, Armoured Automotive, Healthcare, Government IT, Pharmaceuticals & Rail.

Simon is developing expertise in the Unmanned Air Systems, Autonomous Vehicles & CyberSecurity domains.

Simon helps people & organisations learn and apply the STAMP-based approaches across the whole Lifecycle, with a particular focus on Accident & Incident Investigation using CAST.

Simon is embracing the power of social media, the internet and online video to provide learning & support to broad, multi-domain, global audiences.