Announcing our 6th speaker at this years annual Risk Forum 16th and 17th September…
Speaker: Jonathan Sherwood, PHE
Topic: PACE: a Probabilistic Accident Consequence Evaluation Program
Interesting Fact : Jonathan has been working for PHE since graduation in 2007, assessing and modelling the transfer of radioactive material through the environment. A significant part of Jon’s work has featured assessment of accidental releases (from hypothetical and real cases) and he has contributed to assessments of the 2011 incident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant carried out by WHO and UNSCEAR*. He has been part of the PACE development team since the project’s inception in 2008 with involvement in development of both the scientific methodology and software code.
*World Health Organisation and United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, respectively.
PACE is a Probabilistic Accident Consequence Evaluation tool developed by Public Health England (PHE) and implemented as an add-in to ESRI’s commercial geographic information system (GIS), ArcMapTM software.
The purpose of the tool is to assess the ranges of potential off-site consequences of accidental atmospheric releases of radioactive material by modelling a given release scenario under many different meteorological conditions. In addition to offering the option to use a simple Gaussian dispersion model, PACE also incorporates the Met Office’s NAME III model. The software suite also features separate tools for developing the source term and the spatial grid.
An important advantage of developing the tool for a GIS platform is that both the selection of the grid and visualisation of the results can be performed using the sophisticated map-based interface provided. The presentation will give an introduction to the technical features of PACE and describe some of the work it has already been used for within PHE. A beta testing programme is currently under way with participation of external users.
The development team are interested in any feedback from other potential future users and have a target to deliver a commercial version by the end of 2015. An insight in to the potential sources of uncertainty in the software and their implications will be discussed.